The WW3, stampede

I think it best to start this post with a brief and relevant autobiography.

My father was a pilot in the RAF, and I grew up on air force bases. As an adult I've spent most of my working life in the defence industry working on some of the biggest UK contracts, including and not limited to the Eurofighter and Astute submarine. I've even done a small bit of work on Trident.

So I'm not a pacifist, indeed I support the need for up to date, well funded armed forces.

However I am more than a little bit concerned about the current obsession for the imminent commencement of WW3. What on earth is going on?

The press is full on with gloomy pronouncements from various sources, some unidentified, some identified, practically promising war with Russia sometime between now and the next 10 years.

What with German defence ministers, British Generals and other "experts", you get the impression that some at least are looking forward to it.

Some are even predicting war within the next 6 years, unless Putin loses in Ukraine. Which currently isn't predicted to be the forgone conclusion it once was.

Experts are very good at changing their opinions, without apology for previously getting it wrong. Because unless my memory fails me, following the disastrous invasion of Ukraine, all these experts were predicting with the same confidence that they now exhibit for WW3, that Putin would lose.

Indeed some of these experts had said, that because of the incompetence shown by the Russian military, in many ways he already had.

He still seems to be in the game.

And now we have Donald 'draft dodging' Trump declaring that because of Bidens weakness, we are on the verge of war with Russia.

So what's happening? Why this sudden outburst of war fever? There are, in my humble view several reasons. So, with no apologies for my cynicism, let's address some of them;

As an opening statement, I would observe that there is nothing like a war, or at least the realistic possibility of one, to resolve a funding and capability gap within the armed forces.

If you look at the headlines what do we read? The German defence minister demanding greater spending on European defence, in preparation of a possible war. 

Now it's no coincidence here that Germany, the European economic powerhouse and persistent under funder of its armed forces, is having this debate. Following the invasion of Ukraine, Germany pledged to increase spending, but has failed to act. Is it possible that the minister was indulging in political lobbying and is discretely reminding his government of it's commitment?

In the UK you have a British general lobbying for conscription, or at least to prepare for it, and former Admirals declaring it an embarrassment that the navy has no credible capability for attacking land based targets.

Both make a good point, but are they not trying to use current circumstances, to help solve their funding concerns?

As a side note on conscription, this would be the only way that the Army can resolve a recruitment problem if it tried to expand. The current size of the army in many ways reflects the reality that the young today are just not joining in adequate numbers. 

And this issue is also being felt in the US. This is not only a UK problem. Most NATO countries are having this issue.

And then we have Israel, Iran and it's proxy's and the whole inflammatory mess of the Middle East.

Iran has of course found common ground with Russia and is supporting it in various ways. Including setting the ME alight for its own domestic ambitions and to pressurise the west to end it's support of Israel and to remove the sanctions.

All of this, the Ukrainian war, the ME, the Israeli/Hama's conflict is a potent inflammatory mix of ambition and hate.

It wouldn't take a lot for this to explode into cross country conflict. 

And following the drone attack on the US forces and resultant deaths, this seems almost inevitable.

So why do I think all this chatter about WW3 is a bad thing? Especially as in the main I agree with what is being said?

What all this talk is doing is normalising the idea of war, making the public and politicians view it as inevitable and passively accepting of it.

Even during the hight of the cold war, the threat of war seemed more remote than it feels to be today.

But then across the west our politicians were more competent and impressive than those of today. They were the war time generation who understood the horrors of war, who lived through these horrors and did not want them repeated.

They understood the cost.

Today's politicians don't appear to have a clue. They promise action and don't fund it. So we have equipment not up to the job and personnel badly undertrained.

So my little piece of advice, in case any of them are listening. Shut up. Don't rush to the press.  Keep your discussions private.

And don't make funding promises you have no intention of keeping.

Better still, keep some of them. And for goodness sake don't rush to war.

Once on that path, it'll be very hard to change course. And there will be no winners of such a conflict, no victory parades, just devastation and death.